"EUFMD - Demonstration of FMD freedom": 2-stage risk-based surveillance with 1 herd-level risk factor, 1 animal-level risk factor and multiple surveillance components

Input Values


Demonstration of freedom from disease

This calculator was prepared for a project funded by EuFMD, and is intended to support the analysis of surveillance data to demonstrate freedom from FMD. Nevertheless, it is a generic calculator and can be used for other diseases as well.

This tool calculates the cumulative probability of freedom from disease, based on the analysis of herd-level risk-based surveillance data over time (with varying probabilities of introduction over time). It allows for one dichotomous herd-level risk factor, one dichotomous animal-level risk factor, and up to three surveillance components with different sensitivity.


As detailed herd-level data is required for multiple surveillance components, this tool uses two types of data input:

  • General parameters, entered in the fields on the left of this page
  • Detailed data which can be entered into a spreadsheet in the specified format, and then copied into the text areas at the bottom of this page

Once data is pasted, click the submit button at the bottom of the page. Then scroll to the bottom of the returned page to view the results of the analysis.

Herd-level risk factor

Relative risk :
Population proportion in high risk group :
Design prevalence :
Number of herds in population (if known) :

Animal-level risk factor

Relative risk :
Population proportion in high risk group :
Design prevalence :


Prior confidence of freedom :

Detailed data

Copy the relevant data from a spreadsheet and paste it into the text boxes below, in the specified formats. Click on the link below to download a spreadsheet showing example data in the correct format. Always include one header row with the correct column names.

Download example spreadsheet showing correct data formats

Herd testing data

Include one row per herd sampled per time period, with different columns for the different surveillance components. The rows required and the header names are:

Data should be set out as shown in the example spreadsheet.

Herd testing data

Probability of introduction data

This data should have one row for every time period. The columns and headers are:

Probability of introduction data

Component sensitivity data

This data provides the combined test system protocol sensitivity for each of the surveillance components. There should be one row per surveillance system component, and two columns:

Component sensitivity data


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This site was created by Ausvet with funding from a range of sources.
It provides a range of epidemiological tools for the use of researchers and epidemiologists, particularly in animal health.
Please send any comments, questions or suggestions to Evan Sergeant
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